The dining room of the Denny’s on Biscayne Boulevard was nearly empty on a Tuesday afternoon when I sat down across from Carlos Mendez. He had come straight from a lunch shift — still in his manager’s polo, a laminated schedule tucked into his back pocket. He ordered coffee, black, and set his phone face-up on the table as if expecting a notification that hadn’t come yet.
It had been 61 days since he filed his federal tax return. He was still waiting for his refund.
A Family Rebuilt on a Thinner Margin
To understand why 61 days matters to Carlos Mendez, you have to understand what the last five years took from him. Before COVID, Carlos managed a mid-scale restaurant in Coral Gables that seated 180 people. The job paid well — roughly $72,000 a year — and he had accumulated about $34,000 in savings over a decade of careful living.
When the restaurant shuttered in April 2020, that cushion became his family’s lifeline. Over 14 months of unemployment and part-time gig work, he burned through nearly all of it. By the time he landed his current restaurant management position in June 2021, the savings account read $1,200.
His current salary is approximately $58,000. His household includes his wife, Marisol, her two children from a previous marriage — ages 9 and 13 — and his two biological children, ages 11 and 17. Marisol’s ex-husband is court-ordered to pay $620 per month in child support. In the seven months before I spoke with Carlos, that payment had arrived on time exactly twice.
“I don’t budget anymore for that money,” Carlos told me, stirring his coffee slowly. “If it comes, great. If it doesn’t, I’ve already figured out how to live without it. But that means every month I’m already behind before it starts.”
Filing Early, Expecting Fast — What the IRS Timeline Actually Looks Like
Carlos filed his 2025 federal return on January 28, 2026 — the first week the IRS began accepting returns for the 2025 tax year. He used tax software and filed electronically with direct deposit selected, which is the combination the IRS says typically produces the fastest refunds, often within 21 days.
His expected refund was $3,840 — a combination of the Child Tax Credit for his two biological children and standard withholding overpayment. He had mentally allocated $1,100 toward overdue utility bills, $800 toward school expenses for the four kids, $600 to replenish a near-empty emergency fund, and the remainder toward a month of groceries to relieve pressure on his paycheck.
“I had a spreadsheet,” he told me with a short laugh that didn’t quite reach his eyes. “I know how that sounds. But when you have four kids and one income, you plan everything. That refund was already spent on paper before I even filed.”
The “Where’s My Refund” Spiral
By February 18 — three weeks after filing — Carlos checked the IRS’s Where’s My Refund tool and saw a status of “Return Received.” Not “Refund Approved.” Just received. He checked again every morning for the next nine days.
“It became a ritual,” he said. “Wake up, make coffee, check the IRS app. Every day the same screen. I started to think I did something wrong, that maybe I was being audited, that maybe I’d made a mistake somewhere.”
What Carlos likely encountered was a routine identity verification hold — a process the IRS has expanded in recent years to combat refund fraud. According to the Taxpayer Advocate Service, millions of returns are flagged for additional review each filing season, often with no specific error on the taxpayer’s part. The holds can be triggered by changes in income, new dependents, or simply algorithmic flags.
Carlos had added his stepchildren as dependents for the first time in the 2025 tax year — a change that likely drew automated scrutiny, even though he was legally entitled to claim them under his household arrangement.
What Happened While He Waited
The 61-day wait didn’t happen in a vacuum. Carlos walked me through what that period actually looked like at home on Brickell’s western edge, where his family rents a three-bedroom apartment.
- In mid-February, the electric bill came in at $340 — higher than expected after a cold snap. He paid the minimum to avoid disconnection.
- His 17-year-old’s AP exam registration fees came due: $98 per exam, two exams. Carlos paid it without telling his son it was a stretch.
- Marisol’s ex missed the February child support payment entirely — the third miss in seven months.
- A water heater issue required a $280 repair that couldn’t wait.
- By early March, the family’s grocery budget had been reduced to roughly $180 a week for six people.
“I didn’t tell my wife everything,” Carlos said quietly. “She knew it was tight. She always knows. But I didn’t want her to worry the way I was worrying. I’m 55. I’ve been doing this my whole life. You just keep moving.”
The Refund Arrives — and What It Actually Fixed
On March 12, Carlos’s Where’s My Refund status finally shifted to “Refund Approved,” with a projected deposit date of March 17. He texted Marisol a single word: “Finally.”
The $3,840 hit his checking account on the morning of March 17. By that evening, he had paid the electric balance in full, covered the water heater repair, restocked the pantry, and set aside the $600 he’d originally earmarked for an emergency fund. The school expenses were handled. His son’s AP exam fees had already been paid — that money came out of the grocery budget.
The outcome was technically positive — the refund came, the bills got paid, no one went without. But Carlos didn’t describe it as relief so much as a reset to the same precarious baseline. The emergency fund he rebuilt now sits at $600 in a household of six. His wife’s ex has not paid child support in March. The spreadsheet for next month is already drafted.
The Part That Stays With You
Before I left that Denny’s, I asked Carlos what he wished he had known before filing this year. He thought about it for a moment, turning his coffee cup in his hands.
He’s not wrong. The IRS does not proactively notify filers when a return enters extended review, nor does it provide a specific reason in most cases. The Where’s My Refund tool updates once per day and offers limited detail. For a family operating with days of financial margin rather than months, that opacity carries real weight.
Carlos Mendez did everything the IRS recommends. He filed electronically. He chose direct deposit. He filed early. He claimed legitimate dependents. His refund still took 61 days. At 55, after COVID stripped away what he’d built, he’s rebuilding again — carefully, quietly, and with a spreadsheet that accounts for the fact that the systems he counts on don’t always run on the schedule they promise.
He picked up his phone as I gathered my things. Still no new notifications. He slipped it back in his pocket and headed back to the kitchen.
Related: He Has $22K Saved and a Baby Due in Four Months — The Math That’s Keeping Him Up at Night
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