IRS

The IRS Promised Bigger Refunds in 2026 — For This St. Louis Mom, the Math Was More Complicated

The pharmacy on South Kingshighway was quiet on a Tuesday afternoon in mid-February when I first noticed Denise Andersen. She was at the pickup counter,…

The IRS Promised Bigger Refunds in 2026 — For This St. Louis Mom, the Math Was More Complicated
The IRS Promised Bigger Refunds in 2026 — For This St. Louis Mom, the Math Was More Complicated

The pharmacy on South Kingshighway was quiet on a Tuesday afternoon in mid-February when I first noticed Denise Andersen. She was at the pickup counter, speaking in a low, deliberate voice to the pharmacist, asking whether there was any assistance program for a monthly prescription that had jumped to $214 out of pocket. She wasn’t angry. She wasn’t crying. She just sounded like someone who had asked that same question before and already knew the answer wasn’t going to be the one she needed.

I introduced myself after she stepped away. She gave me a measured look — the kind that says I don’t have time for this, but I also have nowhere to be right now — and agreed to talk over coffee at the diner two blocks down.

KEY TAKEAWAY
According to the IRS, most refunds are issued within 21 days of a return being accepted — but real-world timelines vary based on filing method, identity verification, and whether direct deposit information is on file.

A Refund She Had Already Spent in Her Head

Denise Andersen is 37 years old, remarried, and runs a blended household in South St. Louis that includes four kids between her and her husband Marcus — two from her first marriage, two from his. She works the day shift as a machine operator at a mid-sized manufacturing facility near the River Des Peres. The job pays well by most measures. But “well” and “enough” are two different words in a house where the furnace gave out in December and the back section of roof has been soft since last spring’s hail.

Her youngest child, nine-year-old Caleb, receives disability benefits for a neurological condition diagnosed in 2022. The monthly benefit covers some of his therapy costs and a portion of his medication. It does not cover the $214-per-month prescription that recently moved off the formulary. That gap is what brought her to the pharmacy that afternoon.

“I filed on January 28th,” Denise told me once we sat down. “I had the number in my head before I even hit submit. Three thousand, one hundred and twelve dollars. I knew exactly where every dollar of that was going.”

$3,112
Denise’s expected 2026 federal refund

28 days
Actual time from filing to deposit

$8,400
Estimated cost of home repairs needed

The IRS opened the 2026 tax filing season on January 26, 2026, according to IRS guidance published that morning. Denise filed two days later. Her allocation was clear: $1,800 toward the roofing contractor’s deposit, $900 for furnace repairs, $214 toward Caleb’s prescription stockpile, and the remaining $198 tucked into an emergency fund that had been sitting at $43 since November.

The Paper Check Problem Nobody Warned Her About

Four days after filing, Denise got a message through the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund” portal that her return had been accepted. She expected a paper check. That’s how she’d received her refund every year since 2019. What she didn’t know was that the IRS had accelerated its move away from paper refund checks — a shift the agency has been pushing aggressively heading into the 2026 filing season.

The agency has been signaling for months that it is phasing out paper checks in favor of direct deposit and digital options. For taxpayers who haven’t updated their banking information — or who don’t have a bank account on file — this transition has created unexpected friction.

⚠ IMPORTANT
The IRS is actively moving away from issuing refunds via paper check. If you do not have direct deposit information on file with the IRS, your refund timeline may be significantly longer than the standard 21-day estimate. According to USAGov, setting up direct deposit is the fastest and safest way to receive your federal tax refund.

Denise spent the better part of a Saturday morning on the phone with a tax preparer she’d used for years, then another hour navigating the IRS online portal, trying to add her checking account number before the check was cut. “I didn’t even know that was a thing I had to do,” she said. “Nobody sent me a letter. I just saw something on Facebook and thought it might be real.”

She got the banking information in just in time. Her refund ultimately arrived via direct deposit — but the whole process pushed her timeline out. Instead of the 21-day window the IRS cites as its standard target, Denise waited 28 days from acceptance to deposit.

“Seven extra days doesn’t sound like a lot. But when you’ve got a contractor waiting on a deposit and a furnace running on borrowed time, those days feel like a month.”
— Denise Andersen, machine operator, St. Louis, MO

The Stimulus Check Rumor That Took on a Life of Its Own

While Denise was refreshing the IRS refund tracker, she was also watching something else unfold online — and at her factory’s break room, and in her church group chat. Everyone seemed to be talking about a $2,000 stimulus check funded by tariff revenues.

The proposal had real origins. According to reporting by the Austin American-Statesman, the Trump administration had floated the concept of tariff-funded direct payments to American households. But as of this writing, no such payment has been approved by Congress, and there is no confirmed distribution date or eligibility framework.

What’s Actually Confirmed for 2026 Federal Payments
1
2026 Tax Refunds — The IRS opened the filing season January 26, 2026. Most refunds issued within 21 days of acceptance via direct deposit.

2
Potentially Larger Refunds — Reporting from Kiplinger and CNBC suggests refunds could average roughly $1,000 higher in 2026 due to proposed tax code changes — but projections vary.

3
$2,000 Tariff Stimulus — Proposed but not approved. No legislation has passed. The deadline to claim COVID-era stimulus payments closed in April 2025.

4
Fourth Stimulus Check — No fourth stimulus check has been approved. Claims circulating on social media are unverified.

Denise had told herself not to count on it. But she’d quietly done the math anyway. “I’m not going to lie,” she said, looking at her coffee. “I ran the numbers. Two thousand dollars would have finished the roof job and covered three months of Caleb’s prescription. I knew I shouldn’t do that to myself. But you do it anyway.”

When I asked whether she still believed the payment might come through, she shook her head — not with frustration, more with the weariness of someone who has recalibrated expectations so many times it’s become automatic.

When the Money Finally Arrived — and What It Actually Solved

On February 25th, twenty-eight days after she filed, Denise’s $3,112 refund landed in her checking account. She paid the roofing contractor’s $1,800 deposit that same afternoon. The furnace repair came in at $940 — forty dollars over her estimate — but she absorbed it. Caleb’s prescription was paid for March and April. The emergency fund now sits at $156.

“The refund did what it was supposed to do. I’m not complaining about that. I just wish I hadn’t spent six weeks hoping something else was coming too. That hoping costs something. It costs you sleep.”
— Denise Andersen

There’s cautious optimism in the broader picture. Analysts at CNBC have reported that refunds could run approximately $1,000 higher on average in 2026, driven by changes in the tax code. But as Politico noted in February, skeptics warn those gains may not be evenly distributed — and that short-term refund boosts don’t necessarily reflect improved financial stability for working households.

Payment Type Status (as of March 2026) Typical Timeline
2026 Federal Tax Refund ✅ Active — filing season open 21 days via direct deposit
$2,000 Tariff Stimulus Check ❌ Not approved — proposal only No date set
COVID-Era Stimulus (EIP 1-3) ❌ Claim deadline passed April 2025 N/A
Fourth Stimulus Check ❌ No legislation approved No date set

For Denise, the bigger-refunds headline was real — her $3,112 was higher than the $2,400 she received in 2024. But a larger refund and a solved problem are not always the same thing. The roof still needs its second phase of work, estimated at another $3,200 this summer. Caleb’s prescription will need to be paid again in May. The math does not balance; it just defers.

What Denise’s Story Reflects About 2026 Refund Season

Sitting across from Denise in that diner, I kept thinking about the distance between the headlines and the experience. The headlines say bigger refunds. The experience is a woman who spent a February night at 11 p.m. trying to enter a bank routing number on a government website before a deadline she wasn’t sure was real.

The IRS paper-check phase-out is not a small procedural shift. For the segment of filers who have relied on paper checks — often those with less consistent banking relationships, older filers, or people who simply haven’t updated their tax filing habits — it introduces a new layer of friction into a process that is already stressful.

KEY TAKEAWAY
If you typically receive your tax refund by paper check, verify that you have direct deposit information on file with the IRS before your return is processed. Once a paper check is issued, the transition is significantly more complicated. The IRS refunds page has current guidance on updating payment method preferences.

“I feel like every year there’s something new that nobody tells you about,” Denise said as we wrapped up. “And every year I figure it out. But I’m tired of figuring it out after I’ve already gotten behind.”

She paid for her own coffee. She had somewhere to be — a contractor walkthrough at 4 p.m. The roof wasn’t going to fix itself, and the $1,800 deposit had bought her a spot on the schedule for mid-April. That was something. Not everything she’d hoped for when she filed on January 28th. But something.


What Would You Do?

You filed your 2026 taxes on February 3rd expecting a $2,800 refund. The IRS tracker shows your return was accepted, but you learn the agency is phasing out paper checks and your old mailing address is still on file. Your furnace repair contractor needs a $1,500 deposit by March 15th or you lose your spot on the schedule — and temperatures are still dropping at night.

Related: This Houston Landscaper Almost Lost $3,200 in Economic Relief Because of Her Irregular Income — What Finally Changed

Related: Her Disability Check Is $1,340 a Month. Her Bills Are $2,100. This Retired Postal Worker Is Running Out of Options.

This is an illustrative scenario — not financial or professional advice. Consult a qualified professional for your situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will I get my 2026 tax refund?

According to the IRS, most refunds are issued within 21 days of a return being accepted when filed electronically with direct deposit. Paper check refunds take longer. The IRS opened the 2026 filing season on January 26, 2026.
Is the $2,000 tariff stimulus check real and when will it arrive?

As of March 2026, no $2,000 tariff-funded stimulus check has been approved by Congress. The proposal has been discussed by the Trump administration, but no legislation has passed and no distribution date has been set.
Is the IRS really getting rid of paper refund checks?

Yes. The IRS is actively phasing out paper checks in favor of direct deposit and digital payment options. Taxpayers who have not provided banking information may experience longer refund timelines during the transition.
Can I still claim a COVID-era stimulus payment I missed?

No. The deadline to claim previous COVID-era stimulus payments (Economic Impact Payments 1, 2, and 3) closed in April 2025. The IRS will not process late claims for those payments.
Are 2026 tax refunds actually going to be bigger?

Analysts at CNBC and Kiplinger have reported that 2026 refunds could average approximately $1,000 higher than previous years, tied to changes in the tax code. However, Politico and other outlets note these gains may not be evenly distributed across income levels.

158 articles

Vivienne Marlowe Reyes

Senior Tax & Stimulus Writer covering stimulus payments, tax credits, and IRS policy. M.S. Tax Policy Georgetown. Former U.S. Treasury analyst. Enrolled Agent.

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